Barclays: Humanoid Robots Could Fill 60% of China's Labor Gap

Analysts at the British bank Barclays have published a report assessing the potential of humanoid robots as a solution to China's acute demographic crisis. By the researchers' calculations, deploying roughly 24 million humanoid machines could offset 60% of the workforce decline by 2035, softening the impact of a sharp shrinkage in the working-age population.

The scale of the demographic problem

China's demographic figures are alarming: over the next decade, the country's working population will shrink by 37 million people. This is the legacy of years of the one-child policy, which is now showing up as rapid population aging. Low birth rates and rising life expectancy have created a long-term shortage of young workers.

Without decisive action, such a decline could trigger an economic shock, especially in industries that rely on intensive manual labor: manufacturing, logistics, construction and the assembly of complex products. China already faces a shortage of industrial workers, which is pushing up wages and eroding its competitive advantages in the global market.

Robotization as a response to the crisis

Barclays suggests that deploying 24 million humanoid robots could make up roughly 60% of the 37 million lost workers. The remainder of the gap could be covered by alternative measures:

• Modernizing production and raising labor productivity
• Retraining and reskilling programs for workers
• Labor migration from less developed regions of China
• Bringing people of retirement age back into work on flexible terms
• Shifting production capacity to neighboring countries

In the analysts' view, humanoid robots should handle repetitive physical tasks such as assembly, moving loads, packing and simple conveyor operations. That would free human workers for more complex activities that require creativity and adaptability.

The harsh reality of deployment

Still, Barclays' projection should be read as a long-term forecast, not a ready-made business plan. Fully deploying 24 million humanoid robots is an unprecedented challenge that would demand massive investment, retooled factories, upgraded power grids and a new legal framework. The bank does not give a precise cost estimate, but it is clear that the figure runs to hundreds of billions of dollars.

The technology itself is also still at a relatively early stage: today's robots often still need human supervision and cannot cope fully autonomously with every complexity of a production environment.

"Humanoid robots are a powerful tool, but not a panacea,"

Barclays analysts note, stressing the need for a comprehensive approach to the demographic crisis.

What this means for the industry

The Barclays report signals that major global financial players are taking humanoid robots increasingly seriously as a tool for macroeconomic problems. For China, it could mean a sharp increase in investment in robotics and automation. For humanoid makers, from Boston Dynamics to Chinese startups, it points to a huge potential market.

But the main message is simple: the world is approaching the point where robotization stops being a convenience and becomes an economic necessity. In ten years, having humanoid robots in production will be not a competitive advantage but a basic requirement for survival in the global economy.