US Weighs Licensing Requirement for Nvidia and AMD Chip Exports Worldwide

The US government is preparing a move that could redraw the global map of artificial intelligence. According to Bloomberg, Donald Trump's administration is seriously considering mandatory licensing for exports of Nvidia and AMD AI accelerators, effectively placing every international sale of advanced chips under Washington's direct control.

To grasp the scale of the idea, consider where the market stands today. Nvidia controls more than eighty percent of the global market for neural-network training accelerators. Its H100, H200 and newest Blackwell chips are the foundation on which data centers are built from Tokyo to Riyadh. AMD, with its Instinct MI300 line, holds a much smaller but growing share. Together, these two companies are practically the only suppliers of the computing power needed to train large language models and other advanced AI infrastructure. Controlling their exports means controlling the pace of AI development in every country in the world.

The idea did not come out of nowhere. In October 2022, the Biden administration imposed strict limits on shipments of advanced chips to China, and in October 2023 it widened them, closing loopholes involving intermediate accelerator models. But those sanctions were targeted: they were aimed specifically at Beijing and a number of organizations tied to China's military-industrial complex. What is under discussion now is fundamentally different in scale. This is not about blocking a single geopolitical rival, but about building a universal permit system that would affect every buyer country without exception. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, India, European states: all of them would find that receiving a batch of AI chips requires approval from the American government.

Technically, implementing such a system would require substantial bureaucratic infrastructure. The Bureau of Industry and Security at the US Department of Commerce, which already administers export controls, would have to process thousands of applications from companies around the world. Questions arise about approval criteria, review times and the possibility of appealing denials. For buyers, this means unpredictable deliveries and no way to plan data center construction over the long term. For Nvidia and AMD, it means a potential slowdown in sales and more complicated supply chains, which are already under pressure from enormous demand.

The consequences for the global market could be far-reaching. Countries that have so far bought American accelerators freely would begin investing more actively in their own designs. China is already on this path with Huawei Ascend, but similar programs could now appear in Europe, India and the Middle East. Paradoxically, an attempt to tighten control could speed up the fragmentation of the market and ultimately weaken the dominance of American chipmakers. Investors are already nervous: Nvidia's stock is sensitive to any news about export restrictions, and extending control to the entire world is a completely different level of regulatory risk.

There is also a geopolitical dimension. A licensing system turns AI chips into a foreign-policy instrument: not a sanctions stick, but a lever of permanent pressure. Want to build sovereign AI infrastructure? Get permission from Washington. That creates an asymmetry that US allies may not accept. The European Union, which already promotes the concept of technological sovereignty, would gain a powerful argument for developing its own semiconductor industry. Middle Eastern monarchies investing billions in AI projects would become dependent on the political climate in Washington.

It is important to stress that for now this is only a proposal under consideration, not a decision that has been made. Between discussions in government offices and a signed order lies a distance that is not always covered, especially when lobbyists for the largest technology corporations oppose the measure. Nvidia and AMD, whose revenue depends heavily on international sales, will almost certainly use every lever of influence available to them. But the very fact that such a measure is being seriously discussed signals a fundamental shift: the era when advanced AI chips were simply a commodity is coming to an end. They are becoming a strategic resource, and governments will treat them accordingly.