Anthropic opens its wallet: employees get to sell shares, but the valuation raises questions

While the rest of the world argues over whose model writes better code, a different drama is playing out inside AI labs — a financial one. Anthropic, OpenAI's main rival, is getting ready to crack open its piggy bank and let employees sell their shares. This isn't just a goodwill gesture; it's a strategic necessity in the battle for talent.

The $350 billion puzzle

Let's deal with the numbers right away, because they can stop you in your tracks. Reports cite a $350 billion valuation for the company and a $20 billion investment. Taken at face value, that would mean Anthropic is suddenly worth more than twice as much as OpenAI (valued at $157 billion).

Sound too good to be true? It is. In all likelihood, we're looking at a classic case of "lost in translation" or a currency mix-up. Convert 350 billion yuan to dollars and you get about $48 billion — a figure that lines up almost perfectly with recent market rumors that Anthropic is targeting a $40 billion valuation. The same goes for the investment: $20 billion is an unrealistic amount for a single round, while $2.8 billion (the equivalent of 20 billion yuan) sounds like a standard check for training a new model.

Why now

Let's set the numerology aside and look at what actually matters. Secondary share sales (tender offers) have become the new standard for AI unicorns. Companies are staying private longer than ever, and employees sitting on "paper millions" are getting restless. To keep a lead engineer from leaving for a competitor offering a cash bonus, you have to give them a way to cash out here and now.

SpaceX and OpenAI do this regularly. Now it's Anthropic's turn. It signals that the company feels confident and is willing to spend resources not only on Nvidia chips but also on team loyalty.

What it means for the industry

Even if we adjust the valuation down to a realistic $40-50 billion, Anthropic is cementing its status as a heavyweight. Raising new capital (whether $2 billion or more) confirms the thesis: the price of admission to the club of AGI builders goes up every month. The money will go toward GPU clusters and, possibly, toward training Claude 4 or the long-awaited 3.5 Opus.

The bottom line: the arms race is turning into a budget race. Whoever runs out of money to keep their engineers first loses.