Visa Names AI Investment and Online Competition as Keys to Global Economic Growth in 2026

Payment processing company Visa in its mid-year forecast for 2026 estimated global economic growth at 2.4%, citing as the main drivers of the economy a boom in AI investments and price competition in online retail, which compensate for pressure from higher energy prices.

What Visa's forecast shows

Visa sees a slice of nearly every card transaction in the world, so its economic outlook is based on real consumer data rather than just macro statistics. According to the company's mid-year forecast, the global economy will grow by 2.4% in 2026—and this assessment carries a cautiously positive tone. Such a forecast from a payment processor of Visa's scale stands out from typical macroeconomic reports from investment banks precisely because it is built on actual data about consumer behavior rather than surveys or modeling.

• Visa's forecast for 2026 — global economic growth of 2.4%.
• Main supporting factors — investment boom and price competition in online retail.
• Both factors, according to Visa's assessment, offset the burden of higher energy prices.

Why AI investments support growth

In Visa's forecast, the investment boom is directly linked to AI: large-scale corporate investments in AI infrastructure and products are one of the factors absorbing the costs of higher energy prices. At the same time, price competition among online retailers keeps consumer spending in check, preventing inflation from eroding the benefit of growing investments. Essentially, Visa describes two parallel processes: capital is massively flowing into AI infrastructure and products, while digital commerce continues to push prices downward, offsetting the rise in energy costs for end consumers.

How Visa assesses risks to the economy

The cautiously positive tone of the forecast is explained by the fact that Visa relies not on forecasting models used by investment banks, but on actual data about the movement of money through card payments worldwide. This makes its assessment of 2.4% growth in 2026 not an abstract macro indicator, but a conclusion based on real consumer and corporate demand flowing through the company's payment infrastructure.

What this means

Visa's assessment shows that major payment and financial players are already factoring in AI investments as an independent macroeconomic factor—on par with energy prices and consumer demand. This is yet another confirmation that AI investments have stopped being a narrow topic within the tech industry and have become part of how big business calculates risks and growth points for the global economy.