SpaceX joined Nasdaq 100: analyst valued company at $10.5 trillion, Grantham expects crash

SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, and on the same day, Raymond James analyst Brian Jezuele, opening coverage of the company, delivered one of Wall Street's boldest forecasts — a target valuation of $10.5 trillion.

What the most optimistic analyst said

Brian Jezuele from Raymond James went further than other analysts tracking SpaceX: his price target of $10.5 trillion makes the company potentially the most valuable in the world, if the valuation is confirmed by the market. The publication of the forecast coincided with SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index — an event that itself attracted investor attention to the company.

• Event — SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index
• Raymond James forecast (analyst Brian Jezuele) — target valuation of $10.5 trillion
• Opposite view — well-known investor estimates the probability of SpaceX's collapse at 90%
• Both opinions were voiced on the same day

Who's betting on a crash

On the other side of the spectrum — renowned investor Jeremy Grantham, who has warned about market bubbles for many years. He estimates the probability of a sharp drop in SpaceX's value at 90%, meaning he believes current market expectations are grossly inflated.

The difference between the two forecasts — from the status of the world's most valuable company to an almost inevitable collapse — shows how differently professional investors interpret the same data: inclusion in a prestigious index, business growth rates, and the company's ambitions in the space and satellite industries.

What this means

SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 made the company more visible to a broad circle of investors, but at the same time exposed a deep divide in assessments of its prospects: from $10.5 trillion to a 90-percent collapse risk — and the market still has to determine which analyst will be proved right.

Frequently asked questions

What valuation did Raymond James analyst give SpaceX?

Brian Jezuele from Raymond James, opening coverage of SpaceX, set a target valuation of $10.5 trillion — one of the highest forecasts among analysts tracking the company.

What is the probability of

SpaceX's collapse, according to skeptics?

Renowned investor Jeremy Grantham estimates the probability of a sharp drop in SpaceX's value at 90%, believing that current market expectations are inflated.