Tesla hasn't run autonomous tests in California for six years, despite promising a quick launch

Tesla is again talking about launching robotaxis in California soon, but state documents show the opposite: in 2025 the company logged no autonomous test miles there. Against this backdrop, Elon Musk's promises look less like a delay caused by bureaucracy and more like a lack of readiness to go through the regulatory process at all.

Where the launch is stuck

On February 26, 2026, Reuters reported that Tesla recorded not a single mile of autonomous testing on California roads during all of 2025. That is the sixth year in a row with a zero result, even though the company holds a basic DMV permit to test vehicles with a safety driver. Publicly, Musk has said the opposite: in autumn 2025 he promised that robotaxis would appear in the state "in a few months," as soon as regulators approved. By the documents, it is Tesla that is now doing the waiting, not the officials.

The problem is that a long ladder of permits leads to a full driverless service in California. The current permit allows Tesla to test the technology only with a human behind the wheel. For the next stage, under the draft of the new rules, the company must log at least 50,000 autonomous miles on state roads with such a safety driver. Reuters writes that since 2016 Tesla has officially documented only 562 miles in California. Even the service the company called "robotaxi" in the San Francisco area in summer 2025 was essentially an ordinary ride with a live driver.

What the numbers show

The most awkward data for Tesla came not from California but from Texas. According to Electrek, from June 2025 to mid-January 2026 Tesla's pilot service in Austin drove about 800,000 miles and was involved in 14 crashes reported to NHTSA. That works out to roughly one crash per 57,000 miles. For comparison, Tesla itself previously estimated the average rate of minor collisions for a typical American driver at roughly one crash per 229,000 miles. And that is with a person always present in the Tesla robotaxi, ready to intervene.

"The regulators are ready, and they are not."

The comparison with Waymo looks even harsher for Tesla. Reuters notes that Waymo went through seven regulatory approvals and logged more than 13 million test miles before launching a commercial driverless service in California. A translated article on Habr adds another metric: in 2024 Waymo reported 462 crashes over 114 million miles, or roughly one crash per 247,000 miles. Even if the comparison is imperfect because of different operating scenarios, the gap is still too large to write off as statistical noise.

• 0 autonomous test miles for Tesla in California in 2025
• Sixth year in a row without such tests in the state
• 562 miles officially documented since 2016
• At least 50,000 miles needed for the next permit level
• 14 crashes over 800,000 miles for Tesla's pilot in Austin

Why the company is dragging its feet

Tesla has not given a direct answer: Reuters writes that the company did not respond to requests for comment. What follows is therefore interpretation of the facts. The author of the original text links Tesla's passivity to the fact that California's system requires not just driving but detailed reporting. For tests in the state, a company must report crashes within ten days, disclose the context of incidents and publish data on driver interventions every year. These reports become public and let anyone compare promises with real safety.

Against that backdrop, Texas is more convenient for Tesla: fewer barriers and a lower level of mandatory transparency. There it can run a small service with a safety monitor without going through the same volume of public reporting to the state. Tesla itself criticized the proposed California rules, calling the requirements for road testing and reporting too burdensome. The available data point to this conclusion: if the company starts testing at scale in California now, it may not bring a commercial launch closer but instead show regulators how far the technology still is from the required level.

What this means

The Tesla story shows a simple shift in the robotaxi market: loud announcements are no longer enough. Entering California takes miles, permits, reporting and safety statistics that can be verified. As long as Tesla does not clear even the first steps of this chain, the lead in genuinely operating driverless services stays with companies like Waymo, which have not only promises but also a regulator-confirmed track record.