The Novy Trud trade union proposed introducing a robot tax in Russia after 2030

The Union of Platform Economy Workers "New Labor" has proposed a two-stage robotization model for Russia: first, to accelerate the purchase of industrial robots through tax incentives and subsidies, and then to introduce a special fee for automation. The idea is to not slow down technological implementation, but to create in advance a mechanism to support employees whom enterprises will begin to replace with machines.

Two Stages of Reform

The concept has already been sent to the government and is built around simple logic. In the first stage, the country needs to accelerate the implementation of industrial robots, because business is already facing a labor shortage, and the level of automation in Russia remains low. In the second stage, when robotization becomes mass and begins to noticeably affect employment, the union proposes to launch separate tax mechanisms and a targeted social adaptation fund in the coming years.

The authors of the initiative believe that automation will hurt not only the number of jobs, but also the replenishment of social funds. If some employees are laid off, receipts from personal income tax and insurance contributions will decline. Therefore, the "robot tax" in their version is not a ban on technology, but an attempt to redistribute part of the benefits from automation in favor of those who will lose their jobs or be forced to change professions.

Tax Incentives Until 2030

Before introducing the new fee, the union proposes, on the contrary, to stimulate the market. The document states that a premature tax would only slow down the economy and not provide a basis for social protection. Therefore, the main focus until 2030 is on accelerating the implementation of robots in industry, so that enterprises can close their labor deficit without manual staff increases and update production lines faster. The authors consider this stage to be the foundation of the entire scheme.

• Reduced VAT rate of 5% for industrial robot suppliers
• Tax investment deduction for enterprises implementing automation
• Subsidized credit for robotic solutions
• Leasing support for equipment purchases

The target here is quite stringent: by 2030, Russia should reach a robotization density of 145 robots per 10,000 workers. For comparison, in 2025 this figure was 40 robots per 10,000. That is, this is not about cosmetic growth, but about an attempt to almost triple the pace of implementation. In the logic of the authors, such a leap will first create a production base, and only then discuss the redistribution of excess profits.

Tax and Controversial Consequences

In the second stage, from 2030 to 2035, the union proposes to launch a tax on excess profits from automation and introduce contributions for jobs that have been actually replaced by robots. The money should go to a special fund, from which retraining, job search, and social adaptation of employees will be financed. Support, according to the authors, will be received not by everyone, but by workers of enterprises where the number of robots is growing and staff are being reduced at the same time.

"This is not about punishing progress, but about fair redistribution

of benefits from automation."

Even the authors of the concept acknowledge that such a scheme has weak points. Among the risks they mention uneven robotization across regions, business attempts to avoid additional burden, and the emergence of dependent incentives if payments are poorly tied to retraining and employment. To reduce these risks, it is proposed to allocate fund resources in favor of less developed regions, strengthen tax controls, and link assistance to mandatory completion of retraining programs.

Economists have also been critical of the idea. One part of experts agrees that the social consequences of automation cannot be ignored, but warns: if robotization is slowed down, the labor crisis in industry will only become more acute. Another points out that in Russian conditions, automation may not cause a wave of layoffs, but rather increase demand for more skilled workers and raise their wages.

This makes the debate about the "robot tax" not only social, but strategic.

What This Means

The initiative by "New Labor" shows that the conversation about automation and robots in Russia is shifting from abstract discussions to tax and social policy. If the idea gains traction, business will have to count not only the benefits of automation, but also the future cost of replacing people with machines.