Russian union New Labor proposes a robot tax after 2030

New Labor, a union representing platform economy workers, has proposed a two-stage robotics model for Russia. First, the country would speed up purchases of industrial robots with tax breaks and subsidies. Then it would introduce a special levy on automation. The aim is to avoid slowing technology adoption while building, in advance, a way to support the employees that companies will start replacing with machines.

Two stages of reform

The concept has already been sent to the government, and its logic is simple. In the first stage, Russia needs to accelerate industrial robot adoption, because businesses already face labor shortages and the country's level of automation remains low. In the second stage, once robotics becomes widespread and starts to noticeably affect employment, the union proposes launching separate tax mechanisms and a dedicated social adaptation fund in the coming years.

The authors argue that automation will hit not only the number of jobs but also the revenue flowing into social funds. If some employees are let go, receipts from personal income tax (NDFL) and social insurance contributions will fall. In their version, the "robot tax" is not a ban on technology. It is an attempt to redirect part of the gains from automation to people who lose their jobs or are forced to change professions.

Incentives until 2030

Before any new levy, the union proposes the opposite: stimulating the market. The document states that a premature tax would only slow the economy and would not create a base for social protection. So until 2030, the focus is on accelerating robot adoption in industry, so that companies can close staffing gaps without manually expanding headcount and can upgrade production lines faster. The authors see this stage as the foundation of the whole scheme.

• A reduced 5% VAT rate for suppliers of industrial robots
• An investment tax deduction for companies that adopt automation
• Subsidized loans for robotic solutions
• Leasing support for equipment purchases

The target is ambitious: by 2030, Russia should reach a robot density of 145 robots per 10,000 workers. For comparison, the figure stood at 40 robots per 10,000 in 2025. This is not cosmetic growth but an attempt to nearly triple the pace of adoption. In the authors' view, only a jump of this size would first create a production base, after which the redistribution of excess profits could be discussed.

The tax and its contested consequences

In the second stage, from 2030 to 2035, the union proposes a tax on excess profits from automation, along with contributions for jobs that have effectively been replaced by robots. The money would go into a special fund that would pay for retraining, job searches, and social adaptation of employees. Under the plan, support would not go to everyone, but only to workers at companies where the number of robots is rising while headcount is shrinking.

"This is not about punishing progress, but about fairly redistributing

the gains from automation."

Even the concept's authors acknowledge the scheme has weak spots. The risks they list include uneven robotization across regions, attempts by businesses to avoid the extra burden, and the emergence of dependency incentives if payments are poorly tied to retraining and employment. To reduce these risks, they propose setting aside quotas of the fund's money for less developed regions, tightening tax enforcement, and making assistance conditional on completing mandatory retraining programs.

Economists have also criticized the idea. Some experts agree that the social consequences of automation cannot be ignored, but warn that slowing robotization would only make the labor crisis in industry worse. Others point out that, in Russian conditions, automation may not trigger a wave of layoffs and could instead raise demand for more skilled workers and push their wages up. That makes the debate over a "robot tax" not just a social question but a strategic one.

What this means

New Labor's initiative shows that the conversation about automation and robots in Russia is shifting from abstract discussion toward tax and social policy. If the idea gains traction, businesses will have to calculate not only the benefits of automation but also the future cost of replacing people with machines.