Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron may fail to eliminate the DRAM shortage by the end of 2027

The memory market is entering a prolonged deficit period: even with increased DRAM production, manufacturers, according to Nikkei Asia estimates, will be able to cover only about 60 percent of demand by the end of 2027. SK Group management admits that market tension could extend even further — up to 2030.

Why demand outpaces supply

The main problem is not that manufacturers are inactive, but that demand is rising faster than the industry can build new capacity. Memory is needed not only for smartphones, laptops, and general-purpose servers, but also for the infrastructure that AI services run on. Against the backdrop of a race for computing resources, chip manufacturers are reallocating investments and production lines, and the DRAM market faces additional pressure.

Nikkei Asia reports that to balance the market, production would need to grow by approximately 12 percent annually in 2026 and 2027. This is a high growth rate even for the semiconductor industry, where launching new facilities takes years, requires billions in investment, and depends on a complex supply chain of equipment, materials, and skilled personnel. The problem is compounded by the industry's own inertia: between project approval, construction, line setup, and reaching stable production, too much time passes. That's why the market may see new announcements now, but won't get real relief in the coming quarters.

When capacities will arrive

The largest memory manufacturers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — are already working on expanding their plants. However, almost all significant capacity additions will not appear before 2027, and in some projects — only in 2028. This means the market will continue for at least several more years in a mode where new orders come in faster than additional production lines are enabled. There's no sign of a quick turnaround. And this is the key bottleneck for the market.

The situation for 2026 looks particularly severe. According to the publication's data, among the three leaders, only SK Hynix has added a new plant: the facility in Cheongju opened in February. For such a large market, one facility is clearly insufficient if demand continues to grow at current rates. That's why even major announcements about investments don't solve the problem immediately: too much time passes between the plan, construction, and actual volume production.

Who will feel the deficit

DRAM shortage doesn't mean devices will disappear from shelves tomorrow, but it makes the market much more nervous and less predictable. For companies relying on servers and accelerators for AI, this creates additional risk regarding timelines, costs, and the availability of needed configurations. The closer a project is to scaling, the more acutely it feels memory constraints and long supply cycles. Especially where memory cannot be easily replaced.

• Server and data-center manufacturers will need to book memory supplies for longer periods.
• AI companies will struggle to quickly scale infrastructure in response to growing loads.
• Electronics assemblers will face tighter component distribution between segments.
• Large customers will gain an advantage over smaller players in supply negotiations.
• Any delay in new plants could extend the shortage even further.

What's particularly concerning is the forecast horizon. If the market can indeed cover only about 60 percent of demand by the end of 2027, we're talking not about a brief failure after one bad quarter, but about a structural gap between consumption and production. Against this backdrop, the SK Group chairman's words about a possible shortage until 2030 no longer sound like an emotional warning, but like a scenario the market must account for in planning.

What this means

The AI boom is increasingly influencing basic components of the computing industry. If DRAM forecasts come true, memory will become one of the main growth limiters for data centers, cloud services, and parts of electronics, and winners will be those who secure capacities and contracts in advance. For the rest of the market, this is a signal: memory shortage stops being a temporary anomaly and becomes a strategic factor for years to come, starting right now.