Financial expert predicts OpenAI could go bankrupt within 18 months

OpenAI, the company behind the groundbreaking ChatGPT and widely seen as the flagship of the AI industry, may be heading for serious financial trouble. A financial expert predicts that the makers of the world's most popular neural network risk running out of money within the next 18 months.

At first glance, the forecast seems paradoxical. OpenAI has raised more than $13 billion from Microsoft, its valuation has reached $80 billion, and ChatGPT became the fastest-growing consumer product in tech history. But behind the glossy facade lies a troubling economic reality.

The core problem is the staggering cost of operations. By various estimates, OpenAI spends around $700 million a year on compute just to run ChatGPT. Training each new version of GPT costs hundreds of millions of dollars. And despite paid subscriptions and enterprise contracts, the company is still losing money.

This reflects a fundamental problem across the generative AI industry: the technology demands massive investment but has yet to find a truly profitable business model. A $20-a-month subscription doesn't cover the real cost of handling complex queries, and the enterprise market is developing more slowly than expected.

Intensifying competition makes things worse. Google, Meta, Anthropic, and dozens of startups are pouring billions into their own models. That forces OpenAI to keep raising its research spending to hold on to its technological lead. The AI arms race is turning into a war of attrition.

The recent corporate drama around Sam Altman's temporary ouster adds another twist. Internal conflicts and questions about the company's direction could scare off investors just when OpenAI needs fresh funding most.

Still, it's too early to write the company off. Microsoft has a strategic stake in OpenAI's success and is unlikely to let its key partner go bankrupt. OpenAI is also actively diversifying: building enterprise offerings, licensing its technology, and working on more efficient models.

Even so, the expert's forecast is a serious warning sign for the whole industry. If even the market leader is teetering on the edge of financial sustainability, what does that mean for the dozens of AI startups living on venture money? The next year and a half to two years will show whether generative AI can turn from a technological marvel into a sustainable business — or whether the industry is in for a painful correction.

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