Financial Expert Predicts OpenAI Bankruptcy Within 18 Months

OpenAI, the company behind the revolutionary ChatGPT and considered the flagship of the artificial intelligence industry, may face serious financial problems. A financial expert predicts that the creators of the world's most popular neural network risk exhausting their resources within the next 18 months.

At first glance, such a forecast seems paradoxical. OpenAI has attracted more than $13 billion in investments from Microsoft, its valuation has reached $80 billion, and ChatGPT has become the fastest-growing consumer product in the history of technology. However, behind the glittering facade lies a troubling economic reality.

The main problem is the staggering cost of operations. By various estimates, OpenAI spends around $700 million annually just on computational resources to run ChatGPT. Training each new version of GPT costs hundreds of millions of dollars. Yet despite paid subscriptions and corporate contracts, the company continues to generate losses.

This situation reflects a fundamental problem with the entire generative AI industry: the technology requires colossal investments, but has yet to find a truly profitable business model. A $20-per-month subscription does not cover the actual cost of processing complex queries, and the corporate market is developing slower than expected.

The situation is aggravated by mounting competition. Google, Meta, Anthropic, and dozens of startups are investing billions in developing their own models. This forces OpenAI to continually increase research spending to maintain technological leadership. The arms race in AI is turning into a war of attrition.

Adding further intrigue is the recent corporate drama surrounding the temporary firing of Sam Altman. Internal conflicts and questions about the company's direction could deter investors at a time when OpenAI needs new funding most.

Nevertheless, it would be premature to write off the company. Microsoft has a strategic interest in OpenAI's success and is unlikely to allow its key partner to go bankrupt. Moreover, OpenAI is actively diversifying its business: developing enterprise solutions, licensing technologies, and working on more efficient models.

Nevertheless, the expert's forecast is a serious wake-up call for the entire industry. If even the market leader is balancing on the brink of financial sustainability, what does that say about dozens of AI startups living on venture capital? The next year and a half to two years will show whether generative AI can transform from a technological marvel into a sustainable business—or whether the industry faces a painful correction.