OpenAI: Record Losses and a Shrinking Market Share

The tech industry is locked in a heated debate over the financial sustainability of OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT and the generative video model Sora. A recent leak of internal documents, published by The Information, paints a grim picture: the company expects a loss of $14 billion in 2026, three times the 2025 figure. Cumulative losses from 2023 through 2028 could reach an astronomical $44 billion. Despite ambitious plans to reach a $14 billion profit on $100 billion in revenue in 2029, analysts voice serious concerns.

Deutsche Bank offered an even more pessimistic forecast, estimating OpenAI's negative free cash flow at a staggering $143 billion between 2024 and 2029. The bank's analysts stress that the situation is unprecedented: "No startup in history has operated with losses on this scale. We are in completely uncharted territory." The figures raise questions about the viability of OpenAI's business model and its ability to compete with other players in the artificial intelligence market.

The economics of Sora, a generative model that can create video from a text description, are a separate worry. According to Forbes estimates, generating a single 10-second video costs $1.30. At current usage levels, that adds up to $15 million a day, or $5.4 billion a year. Sora's head, Bill Peebles, publicly admitted that "the economics are currently completely unsustainable." That casts doubt on Sora's prospects for monetization and its long-term competitiveness.

The decline in ChatGPT's market share makes matters worse. Over the past year, ChatGPT's share fell from 87% to 68%, while Google Gemini strengthened its position considerably, raising its share from 5.4% to 18.2%. In the enterprise segment, the picture for OpenAI is even more worrying: the company has lost half of its market (from 50% in 2023 to 27% today), ceding the lead to Anthropic's Claude, which holds 32%.

Former Fidelity manager George Noble believes OpenAI is in crisis. "OpenAI is falling apart in real time," Noble said. "I've watched companies collapse for decades. All the warning signs are here." Coming from an experienced investor, those words add weight to concerns about OpenAI's future.

Despite the difficulties, OpenAI continues to develop new technologies actively and to attract talented specialists. The company holds a significant technological advantage and the potential for breakthrough innovations. But to secure its long-term sustainability, OpenAI needs to find effective ways to monetize its products, optimize costs and strengthen its market position.

OpenAI's future remains uncertain. Can the company overcome its financial difficulties and keep its leadership in artificial intelligence? Time will tell. One thing is certain: the situation around OpenAI is a vivid example of how complex and unpredictable the road to success can be in a fast-moving AI industry.