Wedbush Analyst: Anthropic Is in a "Tug of War" With the Trump Administration

Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities has called the talks between Anthropic and the US government a "tug of war" and predicted faster M&A activity in the AI sector, as data on OpenAI's losses comes to light.

Anthropic between Washington and the market

Ives describes Anthropic's talks with the Trump administration as a tense balancing of interests. The company builds some of the most advanced AI systems in the world, and US authorities see it as a strategic asset. But any increase in government involvement inevitably raises questions about research independence and the terms of the partnership.

"It's a tug of war,"

Ives said of the talks between Anthropic and Washington in an interview with Bloomberg.

According to the analyst, on one side is Washington's interest in keeping cutting-edge AI technology "at home"; on the other is Anthropic's wish to preserve autonomy in its development. A possible deal would shift the balance of power in the industry, especially because Anthropic remains one of the few large AI players that stay independent of Microsoft, Google and Meta.

M&A: the wave is only beginning

Ives predicts that the next 12–18 months will be the peak for mergers and acquisitions in AI. His reasoning: big tech companies cannot build advanced AI capabilities from scratch at the pace the market sets, and will prefer to buy ready-made assets.

• Independent model labs are becoming the main acquisition targets
• Infrastructure assets (data, compute, fine-tuning platforms) are a priority for buyers
• Tech giants are strengthening their AI portfolios through deals instead of organic growth
• AI startup valuations are rising, narrowing the window for relatively cheap acquisitions
• Regulatory uncertainty is speeding up market consolidation further

Ives sees this as more than financial transactions: it is a reshaping of the entire technology market for the next decade.

OpenAI's losses on the eve of its IPO

Bloomberg reported significant operating losses at OpenAI, right as the company is expected to go public. Ives acknowledges the situation is delicate. Public investors traditionally react badly to losses at tech companies seeking high valuations.

Still, appetite for AI assets remains high. The latest closed rounds valued OpenAI at more than $150 billion, which suggests investors are willing to pay a premium for expected growth even while accepting current losses. But the public market is a different story: it demands transparency and at least a path to break-even. Ives believes this question will be central at the IPO roadshow.

What this means

The AI industry is moving from a phase of explosive growth to one of institutional maturity. Governments want to control key technologies, corporations want to consolidate assets, and public investors want to see real financial results. Anthropic, OpenAI and the other key players are answering all three demands at once, and that is what defines the new norm for AI business.

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