BIS предупреждает: крах AI-инвестиций может ударить по кредитным рынкам как в 2008 году

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) — the body coordinating the work of central banks in 63 countries — warned in its annual report that an AI investment collapse could shake credit markets with a force comparable to the 2008 mortgage crisis. The Basel Institute ranked AI risks alongside inflation and budget stress, calling them "pressure points requiring close attention."

Why BIS Is Sounding the Alarm

The regulator is concerned not with the technology itself, but with how it is financed. BIS analysts describe a mechanism of "circular financing": AI companies borrow against future revenues, which themselves depend on a continuous influx of AI investments. While the market believes in the unlimited potential of the technology, the system works. But if major investors begin to doubt the returns — the chain risks breaking.

Particular concern is caused by the fact that AI infrastructure spending — building data centers, purchasing specialized chips — requires investments over many years. Monetization of these capacities may be delayed or fall short of forecasts, while the debt burden remains. Banks that extended credit against AI assets risk ending up with non-performing portfolios, and credit tightening will hit all sectors of the economy, not just technology.

"Disappointment in returns is capable of triggering a sharp pullback

that will sweep across the entire credit market," the BIS report warns.

Parallels with 2008

The comparison with the mortgage crisis is not accidental. Then, high demand for mortgage-backed securities created an illusion of safety, shared by banks, rating agencies, and regulators. When borrowers began defaulting en masse, it turned out that the entire market rested on a single assumption — that real estate prices could not fall. Today BIS sees similar logic in AI. Several structural risks converge into a familiar picture:

• AI company valuations are built on expected, not verified, revenues
• Creditors are willing to finance startups and infrastructure projects against future growth
• Risks concentrate with a few key players — hyperscalers, chip suppliers, cloud providers
• The failure of one link could pull a long chain of related credits and guarantees
• Regulators currently lack specialized tools to monitor AI-specific risks

A key difference from 2008: regulators today have the opportunity to identify risks in advance. This is why BIS publishes warnings — to give the system time to react.

The Scale of AI Bets

Global investments in AI infrastructure over the past two years are measured in hundreds of billions of dollars. Leading technology companies are competing to announce record capital expenditures on data centers, energy, and chips. A significant portion of these expenses are financed through borrowed funds or are calculated on revenues that have yet to be earned.

This gap between investments and real returns — the "valley of disappointment" — is the source of systemic risk. The question "when will AI actually start earning" sounds increasingly urgent. The longer the answer is delayed, the higher the pressure on credit portfolios.

Early signs of caution are already visible: some AI startups that received major rounds in 2023–2024 are facing difficulties attracting the next funding — a classic symptom of market cooling.

What This Means

BIS's warning is not a forecast of a crash, but a call for preventive action. Regulators are advised to strengthen oversight of the AI credit sector before the problem reaches systemic scale. For investors and business, this is a reminder: the rapid growth of the AI industry rests on a fragile financial construction, and the risks of a "bubble" here are more real than is commonly believed.