Tesla hasn't run autonomous tests in California for six years, yet promises swift robotaxi launch

Tesla is once again talking about an imminent robotaxi launch in California, but state documents show the opposite: in 2025, the company did not conduct a single autonomous test mile there. Against this backdrop, Elon Musk's promises look not like delays caused by bureaucracy, but rather the lack of readiness to navigate the regulatory path itself.

Where the Launch Stalled

On February 26, 2026, Reuters reported that Tesla recorded zero miles of autonomous testing on California roads throughout 2025. This is already the sixth consecutive year with zero results, even though the company has basic DMV approval to test vehicles with an observer driver. Publicly, Musk said the opposite: in fall 2025, he promised that robotaxi would appear in the state "within a few months," once regulatory approval came through. According to the documents, it now appears that regulators are not the ones doing the waiting—Tesla is.

The problem is that the path to full autonomous service in California involves a long ladder of permits. The current approval allows Tesla to test the technology only in the presence of a human behind the wheel. For the next stage, according to a draft of new regulations, the company needs to rack up a minimum of 50,000 autonomous miles on state roads with such a safety driver. Reuters reports that since 2016, Tesla has officially documented only 562 miles in California. Even the service Tesla called "robotaxi" in the San Francisco area in summer 2025 was, in essence, an ordinary ride with a live driver.

What the Numbers Show

The most uncomfortable data for Tesla came not from California, but from Texas. According to Electrek, from June 2025 to mid-January 2026, Tesla's pilot service in Austin logged approximately 800,000 miles and had 14 accidents reported to NHTSA during that period. This works out to roughly one accident per 57,000 miles. For comparison, Tesla itself previously estimated the average rate of minor traffic accidents for a typical American driver at approximately one accident per 229,000 miles. And this is despite the fact that a person was always present in the Tesla robotaxi, ready to intervene.

"Regulators are ready, but they are not."

The comparison with Waymo looks even harsher for Tesla. Reuters recalls that Waymo went through seven regulatory approvals and accumulated more than 13 million test miles before launching commercial autonomous service in California. The translated Habr article also cites another metric: in 2024, Waymo reported 462 accidents across 114 million miles, or roughly one accident per 247,000 miles. Even if the comparison is not perfect due to different operational scenarios, the gap is still too large to dismiss as statistical noise.

• 0 autonomous test miles for Tesla in California in 2025
• Sixth consecutive year without such tests in the state
• 562 miles officially documented since 2016
• Minimum 50,000 miles needed for the next level of permits
• 14 accidents across 800,000 miles for Tesla's pilot in Austin

Why the Company Is Dragging Its Feet

Tesla has not given a direct answer: Reuters reports that the company did not respond to requests for comment. So what follows is already an interpretation of the facts. The author of the original article links Tesla's passivity to the fact that California's system requires not only driving but also detailed reporting.

When testing in the state, the company must report accidents within ten days, disclose incident context, and annually publish data on driver interventions. These reports become public and allow for comparisons between promises and actual safety. Against this backdrop, Texas is more convenient for Tesla: there are fewer barriers, and the level of mandatory transparency is lower.

There, the company can maintain a small service with a safety driver and avoid going through the same volume of public reporting to the state. Tesla itself criticized the proposed California rules, calling the requirements for testing on roads and reporting too burdensome. From the available data, the following conclusion emerges: if the company starts extensive testing in California right now, it might not bring the commercial launch any closer—instead, it could show regulators just how far the technology still is from the required level.

What It Means

The Tesla story demonstrates a simple shift in the robotaxi market: flashy announcements are no longer enough. To enter California, you need miles, permits, reporting, and safety statistics that can be verified. Until Tesla gets past even the initial stages of this chain, leadership in actually operational autonomous services remains with companies like Waymo, which have not only promises but also a regulator-confirmed track record.