ASML Raises 2026 Forecast Amid Growing Demand for AI Chip Equipment

ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast, and this is one of the clearest signals that the AI boom continues to drive not only model developers but the entire chip manufacturing supply chain. The Dutch company now expects annual sales in the range of €36–40 billion, up from the previous range of €34–39 billion, while maintaining a gross margin guidance of 51–53%. The reason for the forecast revision is the first quarter results and stronger demand from customers.

In the quarter, ASML generated €8.8 billion in revenue, achieved a 53% gross margin, and earned €2.8 billion in net profit.

For the second quarter, the company expects €8.4–9 billion in sales. The market cares not just about the number itself, but the reason: chip manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion because AI infrastructure spending continues to grow, and demand for chips outpaces supply.

ASML holds a unique position in the industry. Its lithography machines, including EUV systems, are essential for producing the most advanced semiconductors that go into accelerators for data centers, server processors, and advanced memory. When major players increase purchases of ASML equipment, it typically means they are betting on a longer investment cycle, not a short-term spike.

The company directly states that customers have improved their short-term and medium-term demand expectations and are more actively planning factory expansion for 2026 and beyond. What is particularly telling is that growth is not coming only from sales of new machines. Revenue from the Installed Base Management segment, which includes service and upgrades to already-installed systems, grew to €2.

488 billion from €2.134 billion in the previous quarter. This speaks to two things at once: first, customers already have a large operational equipment base; second, they are willing to invest in improving the productivity of existing production lines, rather than only waiting for new deliveries.

Notably, the number of new lithography systems sold fell from 94 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 67 in the first quarter of 2026, yet the margin remained high. For ASML, this is an important indicator of demand quality and pricing power. The context also favors this narrative.

Back in January, when reporting 2025 results, ASML guided for 2026 revenue in the €34–39 billion range. The company then reported a record 2025: €32.7 billion in sales, €9.

6 billion in net profit, and a backlog of €38.8 billion at year-end. Orders in the fourth quarter alone reached €13.

2 billion, of which €7.4 billion was for EUV. Now, less than three months later, the upper end of the forecast remains unchanged, while the lower end has risen by €2 billion.

This is typically read as a reduction in management's caution and as confirmation that demand has become more predictable. That said, the company does not pretend there are no risks. In its new forecast, ASML notes separately that the stated range should account for possible outcomes of ongoing discussions around export restrictions.

For an equipment manufacturer of this caliber, this is a sensitive issue: supplies of advanced systems depend not only on commercial demand but also on policy, licensing, and technology controls. However, the current tone of management is noticeably more confident than at the start of the year: even accounting for external constraints, the company believes 2026 will be a growth year for all of its main business segments. For the market, this is an important indicator.

ASML's forecast increase shows that the wave of AI investment continues to be anchored in physical infrastructure—fabs, lithography, memory, packaging, and service. And if the supplier of the most critical equipment in the chain sees accelerating demand, it means that the world's largest chip manufacturers are not yet preparing for a slowdown. For Europe, it is also a reminder of the strategic value of companies that control narrow but irreplaceable links in the global technology stack.