SoftBank takes out a $40B loan: JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs bet on an OpenAI IPO

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are preparing to issue to Japanese conglomerate SoftBank an unsecured credit facility of $40 billion with a 12-month term. This is one of the largest such deals in the history of corporate lending, and Wall Street already sees in it indirect confirmation that OpenAI's IPO could take place this year. SoftBank is OpenAI's largest external shareholder.

Within the February Stargate deal, the Japanese conglomerate committed to investing $30 billion directly in OpenAI and another $70 billion through an infrastructure fund. Masayoshi Son, CEO of SoftBank, has long been betting on AI as the key technological position of the decade: in January 2025, he stood alongside Trump at the announcement of Stargate, promising $500 billion in investments and hundreds of thousands of jobs. The $40 billion credit — unsecured, meaning without collateral of assets — looks unconventional.

Banks typically require security at such sums. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs' agreement to unsecured terms signals: they believe in SoftBank's ability to repay the money through a specific and rapid source of liquidity. OpenAI's IPO fits perfectly in the role of such a source.

The logic is simple. SoftBank holds a stake in OpenAI valued, by various estimates, at $40–60 billion at the company's current private valuation of $300+ billion. If OpenAI goes public in 2026, SoftBank will have the opportunity to sell part of its shares or use them as collateral for refinancing.

The twelve-month credit term is no accident: it fits within the most probable window for an IPO in the second half of 2026. OpenAI itself has sent mixed signals regarding a public offering. At the end of 2024, the company announced a restructuring toward a standard commercial model — this is a mandatory condition for an IPO.

Sam Altman has repeatedly mentioned an IPO as a possible scenario, without naming specific timelines. Masayoshi Son spoke more directly: according to him, OpenAI will transform civilization, and therefore becoming its shareholder is a historic opportunity. A separate question is why SoftBank needs $40 billion right now.

The most likely scenarios: recapitalization of infrastructure positions under Stargate, buyback of secondary OpenAI shares from the market at prices below a potential IPO, and also refinancing of its own debt. SoftBank historically operates with high leverage — Vision Fund 1 attracted $100 billion in 2017 and went through several painful write-downs, including WeWork. For the AI industry, this event is important for several reasons.

First, it confirms that traditional financial institutions — not just venture funds — now see AI as the primary asset of the era. Second, if OpenAI's IPO takes place in 2026, it will be the largest technology listing since Alibaba in 2014. Third, OpenAI's public status will fundamentally change information transparency: the market will for the first time see the real revenue, margins, and growth rates of one of the world's most secretive companies.

For now, these are only indirect signals. Neither OpenAI nor SoftBank has officially confirmed an IPO. But when Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan together issue $40 billion without collateral for 12 months — this is no longer a rumor.

This is a calculation.