The US is considering licensing exports of Nvidia and AMD chips worldwide

The United States government is preparing a move that could reshape the global artificial intelligence landscape. According to Bloomberg, the Donald Trump administration is seriously considering introducing mandatory licensing for the export of AI accelerators from Nvidia and AMD — effectively placing every international transaction for advanced chip sales under direct Washington control.

To understand the scale of this initiative, one must assess the current alignment of forces. Nvidia controls more than eighty percent of the global market for neural network training accelerators. Its H100, H200, and newest Blackwell chip series have become the foundation upon which data centers are built from Tokyo to Riyadh. AMD, with its Instinct MI300 lineup, occupies a significantly smaller but growing share. Together, these two companies are practically the only suppliers of computational power necessary for training large language models and other cutting-edge AI infrastructure. Controlling their export means controlling the pace of artificial intelligence development in every country in the world.

The idea did not emerge from nowhere. Back in October 2022, the Biden administration imposed strict restrictions on deliveries of advanced chips to China, and in October 2023 expanded them, closing loopholes with intermediate accelerator models. However, those sanctions were targeted — they were directed specifically against Beijing and a number of organizations connected to China's military-industrial complex.

What is being discussed now is fundamentally different in scale. It is not about blocking one geopolitical rival, but about creating a universal licensing system that would affect all purchasing countries without exception. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, India, European states — all of them would find themselves in a situation where government approval from Washington would be required to obtain a batch of AI chips.

Technically, implementing such a system would require serious bureaucratic infrastructure. The Bureau of Industry and Security at the U.S. Department of Commerce, which already administers export controls, would need to process thousands of applications from companies around the world. Questions arise about approval criteria, review timelines, and the possibility of appealing denials. For buyers, this means unpredictability of supplies and the inability to plan long-term data center construction. For Nvidia and AMD, it means potentially slowing sales and complicating supply chains that are already under pressure from enormous demand.

The consequences for the global market could be far-reaching. Countries that have so far freely purchased American accelerators will begin to invest more actively in their own developments. China is already moving in this direction with Huawei Ascend, but now similar programs could appear in Europe, India, and the Middle East. Paradoxically, an attempt to strengthen control could accelerate market fragmentation and ultimately weaken the dominance of American chipmakers. Investors are already nervous: Nvidia's stock is sensitive to any news about export restrictions, and expanding controls worldwide is an entirely different level of regulatory risk.

There is also a geopolitical dimension. A licensing system turns AI chips into a tool of foreign policy — not a sanctionary whip, but a lever of constant pressure. Want to build sovereign AI infrastructure? Get approval from Washington. This creates an asymmetry that US allies may not accept. The European Union, which is already promoting the concept of technological sovereignty, will gain a powerful argument for developing its own semiconductor industry. Middle Eastern monarchies investing billions in AI projects will find themselves dependent on political circumstances in Washington.

It is important to emphasize that for now we are talking about considering the initiative, not a decision already made. Between discussions in offices and a signed executive order lies a distance that is not always possible to overcome, especially when lobbied against by the most powerful technology corporations. Nvidia and AMD, whose revenue depends significantly on international sales, will certainly activate all available levers of influence. But the very fact that such a measure is being seriously discussed signals a fundamental shift: the era when advanced AI chips were simply a commodity is coming to an end. They are becoming a strategic resource, and governments will treat them accordingly.