Tariff Uncertainty and AI Anxiety Hit the Tech Market

Monday, February 23 became yet another painful day for the technology sector. Two powerful factors — an unresolved situation with trade tariffs and growing skepticism about the actual returns from massive investments in artificial intelligence — converged at one point, sending shares of major technology companies downward. The market, accustomed over the past two years to unstoppable rallies fueled by AI enthusiasm, for the first time faced a situation where both key narratives work against it simultaneously.

Tariff policy remains the primary source of macroeconomic uncertainty for the technology sector. Companies whose supply chains are deeply integrated into global trade — from chip manufacturers to server hardware assemblers — cannot adequately plan expenses and forecast margins when the rules of the game change with each new statement from Washington. Semiconductor companies proved particularly vulnerable, for whom Asia remains a critical manufacturing hub. Any tightening of the tariff regime directly impacts their costs and, as a consequence, their profitability.

But if tariffs are an external shock, then anxiety around AI has been growing from within the industry itself. After two years of unprecedented investment boom, when companies poured tens of billions of dollars into building data centers, purchasing GPUs, and developing models, the market is beginning to ask an uncomfortable question: where is the return on these investments? Corporate adoption of AI is progressing slower than expected. Many pilot projects never transitioned to full-scale deployment. Monetization of generative AI beyond a few large platforms remains more of a promise than reality. This gap between capital expenditures and actual revenue increasingly concerns investors.

The coming week promises to be defining. Ahead are quarterly earnings reports from two companies that best reflect current market sentiment. Nvidia, which became the symbol of the AI boom and the primary beneficiary of the race for computing power, must demonstrate that demand for its accelerators continues to grow.

Any hint of slowing growth pace or cautious guidance from management could trigger a massive sell-off not only in the company's stock but across the entire sector. Salesforce, in turn, will show how successfully a major corporate vendor converts AI functionality into actual revenue growth. Its results will serve as an indicator of whether corporate clients are ready to pay a premium for AI tools or whether the market overestimated the speed of their adoption.

The cryptocurrency market, which in recent years has become increasingly correlated with sentiment in the technology sector, also came under pressure. Bitcoin fell below the $65,000 mark — the second time in February. This is particularly notable given that just a few months ago the crypto community was extraordinarily optimistic. Bitcoin's decline in this context is not so much a story about crypto as an indicator of a general deterioration in appetite for risk. When investors get nervous, the most speculative assets are the first to be hit.

It is important to understand the broader context of what is happening. The technology sector experienced a phenomenal rally, largely built on expectations of AI's transformational effect. The market capitalization of the "Magnificent Seven" grew by trillions of dollars. But markets are cyclical, and a phase of overvaluation was inevitable. The question was never whether a correction would occur, but what would trigger it. Now we see two triggers firing simultaneously: geopolitical uncertainty has undermined confidence in macroeconomic stability, and growing skepticism about the pace of AI monetization has cast doubt on company valuations that were built on years of flawless growth ahead.

For Russian observers, this situation carries several important signals. First, a slowdown in AI infrastructure investments in the West could affect global availability of computing resources and, consequently, the cost of cloud services. Second, if the correction proves deep, it could lead to market consolidation — weaker AI startups, deprived of access to cheap capital, will be forced either to sell or close. Third, tariff uncertainty may accelerate the process of regionalization of technology supply chains, which creates both risks and opportunities for local players.

The coming days will show whether the current decline is a healthy correction of an overheated market or the beginning of a deeper revision of expectations about the AI revolution. Nvidia and Salesforce's reports will give the market concrete figures instead of abstract fears. And it is these figures that will determine whether optimism returns or gives way to a new, more sober reality.