The Economics of AGI: Why Endless Growth in AI Capabilities Does Not Guarantee Prosperity

AGI Economics: Why Infinite Growth in AI Capabilities Does Not Guarantee Prosperity

At the forefront of contemporary technological discussions stands the concept of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), capable of solving any intellectual task at the level of humans or surpassing them. As we approach this point, futurologists and economists increasingly ask: how will such unprecedented development affect the global economy? New research, based on the translation of an essay on the economics of the future prepared by the AI for Devs team, raises an alarming aspect of this transformation, warning that infinite growth in computational power and AI capabilities is not, in itself, a guarantee of universal prosperity. On the contrary, it may generate systemic risks that require deep reconsideration of economic models.

The core thesis of the research is that total replacement of human labor with machines, even the most advanced ones, creates a dangerous paradox. On one hand, the productivity of systems managed by AGI will grow rapidly, potentially leading to impressive increases in gross domestic product (GDP). On the other hand, the real purchasing power of the population, deprived of income sources due to mass automation, will decline.

This dissonance calls into question the very essence of economic activity. Traditionally, the economy functions as a cycle: production creates goods and services that are then consumed by people, generating demand, which in turn stimulates further production. Without active human participation in this consumption cycle, the economy loses its fundamental purpose, becoming a closed system of production for production's sake, devoid of a final consumer.

The research author draws a parallel with a situation where GDP grows, but the population cannot afford to purchase the produced goods. This is not merely a theoretical model, but a real risk that may manifest with the widespread introduction of AGI. Technological progress not accompanied by the development of new mechanisms for value circulation and distribution of benefits will lead to an "illusion of growth." Outwardly, the economy may demonstrate impressive indicators, but in reality, behind this appearance will lie a deep social crisis, characterized by growing inequality, loss of meaning, and social tension. AI, as a tool, will only accelerate this process if it is not integrated into a broader social and economic strategy.

The consequences of such a scenario extend far beyond purely economic metrics. A society in which a significant portion of the population has no opportunity to participate in consumption and, consequently, does not feel its connection to the economic process, risks experiencing a loss of social cohesion and the rise of radical sentiments. A fundamental question arises: for whom and for what purpose will AGI produce if purchasing power becomes concentrated in the hands of a small group of capital owners, while the majority is excluded from the economic equation? This calls into question the very model of capitalism, based on growth and consumption, and demands the search for new paradigms.

In conclusion, the research emphasizes that technological progress, embodied in AGI, is not an end in itself. To build a sustainable and prosperous future, a radical rethinking of the role of capital, labor, and resource distribution in society will be required. This may require the implementation of such concepts as universal basic income, new forms of collective ownership, or a reorientation of the economy toward immaterial values and public good. Ignoring these systemic risks could result in the AGI era becoming not an epoch of universal prosperity, but a time of unprecedented crisis caused by an "illusion of growth."