SoftBank and OpenAI: Masayoshi Son Bets Everything on AI While Japanese Automakers Struggle

Masaёshi Son is on the hunt again, and this time his target is not just another promising startup, but the very heart of the current technological revolution. Next week, SoftBank Group Corp. will present its third-quarter report, and all attention will be focused not on operating profit, but on management comments regarding OpenAI. This is the moment of truth when it will become clear whether the Japanese conglomerate is ready to return to its aggressive "all or nothing" strategy that once made Son a legend and then nearly brought the company to ruin.

To understand the scale of what is happening, one must recall what SoftBank has gone through over the past five years. After the catastrophic collapse of WeWork and a series of painful write-downs in the Vision Fund, Masaёshi Son fell silent for a while. He spoke of "defensive" mode and the need to preserve cash. But the arrival of ChatGPT at the end of 2022 acted as a detonator. Son, who had preached for decades about the coming era of superintelligence, suddenly saw his predictions coming true—only implemented by a company in which he initially had no stake. For a man with his ambitions, this was almost a personal insult.

Now the situation is changing in a mirror image. While SoftBank frantically seeks ways to embed its assets, such as chip designer Arm, into the new AI ecosystem, the traditional pillars of the Japanese economy look frighteningly inert. Japanese automakers, including giants like Toyota and Honda, now resemble Atlases who have held the sky too long and did not notice it changing color. While Tesla and Chinese players like BYD are turning cars into wheeled gadgets controlled by neural networks, the Japanese automotive industry continues to debate the merits of hybrids over pure electric cars. This gap in speed of thinking is becoming critical.

Rumors that SoftBank plans to significantly increase its stake in OpenAI have very solid grounds. Sam Altman needs not just money, he needs hundreds of billions of dollars to realize his ambitious plan to create his own network of chip manufacturing facilities. Son has what no one else has: control over Arm and a pathological passion for large-scale projects. If SoftBank becomes OpenAI's main financier, this will create an unprecedented alliance. We will get a vertical where British processor architecture, Japanese capital, and American algorithms merge into a single mechanism.

However, behind this glitter lie serious risks. SoftBank investors still remember the times when Son called Adam Neumann a genius. Critics rightly point out that the AI market is currently in a phase of extreme hype, and new infusions into OpenAI at a valuation exceeding 150 billion dollars could turn out to be buying at the very peak. But Son seems to have no choice. He understands that in a world where AI becomes the primary productive force, owning a stake in the planet's leading LLM company is not just an investment—it is a ticket to the table where the fates of civilization are decided.

It is interesting to observe how SoftBank is trying to distance itself from the image of "just a fund" and transform itself into an operating holding focused exclusively on artificial intelligence. This is a risky transformation that requires not only money but also iron resolve. Against the backdrop of the stalling automotive industry, which for years was the backbone of Japan, Son looks like the only person in the country who understands: the old world of iron and gasoline is dying, and something completely different must be built on its ruins.

Key takeaway: Will SoftBank become for OpenAI what it became for Alibaba twenty years ago, or is Son stepping on the same rake again, trying to pour money into an overheated market?